Priced Out: Americans flock to states with the slowest-rising home prices

Owning a home is part of the American Dream. But in 2024, before prospective homeowners can begin picking out paint colors for their own picket fence, they’ll need to navigate high interest rates, surging insurance premiums, and home prices that have never been higher.

Amid rising affordability concerns, as many as 23% of Americans report that they would consider moving out of state to find lower prices. But how significant is the role of soaring home prices in shaping current U.S. migration trends?

Using search data from the moveBuddha Moving Cost Calculator, we examined user interest in moving in and out of U.S. states in 2024. Our analysis uses an in-to-out move ratio, a metric that compares the volume of users interested in moving to each state with the volume of users interested in moving away. Ranking all states by their in-to-out move ratio, we determine the top move-to and exit states of the year.

We then used an average of Redfin’s median home sale prices and Zillow’s home value index to compute statewide averages: our “home value average” for the years 2023 and 2024.

By examining the percentage change in average home values between 2023 and 2024, we found a strong correlation between rising home prices and the top and bottom states to consider moving to in 2024 — and uncovered some states that movers motivated by affordable homeownership may want to consider.

Big Takeaways

• Home prices in America are rising at twice the rate of last year. From 2023 to 2024, the nationwide average for home prices jumped 4.2% (~$15,350), nearly doubling the 2.8% (~$7,995) increase from the previous year.
• Home prices in 4 of the top 5 exit states rose by 7-9%: Connecticut (+9.0%), New Jersey (+8.8%), Rhode Island (+7.9%), and Illinois (+7.1%). California, the top exodus state, saw a smaller increase of 5.8%, but the largest dollar increase nationwide at $43,733.
• The top 4 inbound states South Carolina (+3.8%), North Carolina (3.4%), Arkansas (3.8%), and Wyoming (-1.9%), saw home prices rise on average less than 4%, or an average total numeric increase of only $9,886 – significantly below the national average.
• Only one state didn’t see home prices rise in 2024. In Wyoming, home prices dropped 1.87%.

Home prices in top exit states are rising twice as fast as in other states

Home values in 2024 are rising at a much quicker pace than the year before.

By our calculation, taking an average across Redfin and Zillow estimates, the change in home prices nationally from 2023 to 2024 up 4.2% (~$15,350) is nearly double the 2.8% ($7,995) increase we saw from 2022 to 2023.

This dramatic year-over-year increase in home values is more pronounced in some states than others.

moveBuddha search data shows that states seeing the highest proportion of searches for moves-out are also those facing some of the nation's fastest rising home values  Across the top 5 exit states, home values rose by an average of $34,592 — over double the national average.

In each of the top 5 exit states of 2024, home values are rising significantly quicker than the national average—anywhere from 39% to 115% faster.

In Connecticut, home prices jumped 9.02% between 2023 and 2024 –  the fastest growth in the nation. This increase has led to home values rising a whopping $34,178, an increase in raw dollars that ranks #6 in the nation.

California experienced the highest dollar increase in home values, at $43,000 since 2023. But this 5.84% rise is only the 10th highest in the nation by percentage.

California and New Jersey homes cost about $43K more than they did last year

In New Jersey (+8.8%) and California (+5.84%), where home prices have risen by $42,268 and $43,733 respectively, the sharp increase in housing costs correlates with some of the nation’s lowest in-to-out move ratios. That means, states with the sharpest housing increases are also those with the highest rate of searches from prospective movers looking to leave.

In a country where the average per-capita income is roughly $38,000, home price increases of $43,000 mean that housing costs are rising faster than many individuals’ entire annual income, putting homeownership further out of reach for a significant portion of the population.

Despite their economic prominence, states like California and New Jersey, currently ranked #50 and #48 in the nation for their in-to-out move ratios, may be seeing prospective movers priced out and preferring to relocate to more affordable states.

Home prices are rising everywhere, but top move-to states see increases fall under the $15K national average

As housing costs surge nationwide, we’re finding Americans are increasingly drawn to states that offer some relief.

Since last year, home values nationwide have risen by an average of 4.2%, with the average American home now costing about $370,927. That’s the steepest jump in nearly 25 years when back in 1999, the start of a “housing bubble” culminated in the 2008 crash and subsequent Great Recession.

Although rising home prices are pervasive, the five states that are seeing the highest proportion of interest from potential movers have experienced more modest average increases of $9,886 — roughly two-thirds the national average.

4 of the top 5 states by in-to-out move ratio saw smaller-than-average increases in home values. The top 4 states even saw increases under 4%.

South Carolina has sustained its popularity, with more than double the number of prospective in-moves to out since 2020. Homes here continue to rise in value, but for interested buyers in South Carolina, they only increased by $12,278 year over year, climbing to roughly $337,000.

One notable exception is #5, Maine, where home prices jumped over 6% – a faster rate than in California. The state of Maine operates a program to attract new remote-work residents and has credited a “pandemic surge” with its recent popularity.

Texas and Florida both have below-average increases

Texas has been a big winner in building inventory that keeps housing costs in check. Compared to last year, homes in the state cost only about 0.88% ($2,836) more.

Year after year, Florida is home to some of the nation’s most popular cities to move to. Home prices here continue to rise, but also fall under the national average, with a year-over-year increase of 2.36% ($9,345).

Wyoming is the only state where housing prices fell in 2024

Interestingly, Wyoming was the only state in the nation to see a decrease in home values (-1.87%) between 2023 and 2024. All the while, Wyoming still has a strong in-to-out ratio of 1.63.

Because it is the nation’s least populated state, Wyoming’s in-to-out ratio is high, but overall represents a smaller number of total movers. But home prices are measured in dollars, not people, so the home price reduction indicates Wyoming is keeping price inflation suppressed even as it gains new residents. And while home prices may have fallen in Wyoming since 2023, today’s average home still costs almost $13,000 more than it did in 2022.

Wyoming ranks #3 among this year's top ten most popular states for in-move searches, despite having relatively high home prices. However, its average home price is still lower than that of Idaho, the only other Mountain West state in the top ten. The region’s overall economic growth still outpaces the rest of the nation, perhaps making Wyoming a popular alternative to more expensive states in the region while offering new movers the same perks.

Movers Show More Interest in Spots with Lower Price Hikes

In 2024, states with the lowest home cost increases are among the most searched-for destinations from out-of-state movers. The inverse is also true: states with high year-over-year real estate hikes are the ones with the highest proportion of movers looking to leave.

In 2024 the big winner is South Carolina, drawing significant interest from prospective movers – for every person considering leaving, two are interested in moving in – all while home prices remain relatively stable.

The data suggests a clear correlation between rising home prices and migration patterns. While many factors influence where people choose to move, housing affordability appears to be playing an increasingly critical role. States with slower price growth are attracting more interest, as affordability becomes a key concern in a challenging real estate market. Conversely, states with rapidly increasing home prices are seeing more residents consider relocating. These trends highlight the growing impact of housing costs on migration decisions, reflecting broader economic pressures that are shaping where Americans want to live in 2024.

Methodology

We examined moveBuddha's mover search data collected in 2024 (Jan 1 - Oct 8, 2024) to examine trends in searches for moves into and out of each state (omitting in-state moves).

To understand the estimated home values by state, we averaged Redfin’s median home sale prices with Zillow’s home value index for a home value average for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024. We took an average of the two to provide a more comprehensive average based on the estimates these real estate tools provide.

Correlations were found between the in-to-out move ratio for 2024 and the % change in home value between 2023 and 2024.

We also examined increases in home insurance (via Insurify) and local household wages (via Fred) but did not find either was associated with which states Americans have been looking to move to this year.