Golden State Exodus: The moveBuddha 2024 California Migration Report

Joe Robison

Last Updated: Sep 26, 2024
14 min read

For the third year in a row, California is the top exit state. But because it’s the most populous state, there are plenty of new Californians, too. Nearly half a million Americans are bucking the trend and betting on the Californian dream each year.

This report uses moveBuddha’s in-to-out ratio, a comparison of searches for moves in vs. out to reveal the migration patterns shaping California in 2024.

Key Findings

Californian move-out searches are the highest of any U.S. state with 46 in for every 100 looking to move out.
Texans move to California the most, but Californians move to Texas way more.
OC cities lead in exit searches. Retirement spots and Sacramento suburbs attract interest.

1. California Moves: Looking at statewide moving trends in 2024
2. California Gains: Which states and city residents are still moving to California
3. California Exits: Where are former Californians moving?
4: City Forecast: Which California cities are seeing the most interest for moves in or out in 2024?
5. Sources and Methodology

Big Takeaways

There’s an uptick of outflow from California in 2024. In 2023, moveBuddha data showed a 53:100 in-to-out mover search ratio. In 2024, it dropped to 46:100. That translates to 2.17 searches to move out for every one to move in (compared to 1.89 last year), making California the state with the highest out-move ratio in the nation.
Californians are still heading to Texas more than any other state. California lost 75,423 people to out-moves in 2023, if that number holds in 2024 that means 20,800 will head to Texas this year.
Texans are moving to California. Of Americans moving to California, 10.9% are coming from Texas—more than any other state.
Orange County Cities have the most move-outs compared to in-moves. Anaheim, Huntington Beach, Mission Viejo, and Costa Mesa all rank in the bottom 10 of California cities by in-to-out ratio.
High-income enclaves are winning new residents. Beverly Hills (#1), Palo Alto (#5), and Newport Beach (#11) all have positive inflow. These three cities also have the top three home prices in the state.
Retirement enclaves like Palm Springs and Palm Desert are top move-to destinations in California. They attract more new residents than they lose, with average home prices over $100,000 cheaper than the state’s median of $786,180.
The outskirts of Sacramento are up-and-coming for affordable homes and move-ins. Folsom (#5) and Elk Grove (#9) are among California’s 25 lowest-cost home prices.

Our moveBuddha in-to-out move ratio analysis:

When we crunch the numbers from the moveBuddha Moving Cost Calculator, we like to compare inflow to outflow: which areas are seeing a high volume of interest from residents looking to move in without a corresponding number of disenchanted residents looking to move out. We analyze this trend via a metric we call the in-to-out ratio. It gives us insight into which cities are attracting more moves-in and -out proportionally. For more details, check out our methodology section.

1. California moves: Last place for moves in vs. out three years in a row and counting

When new data showed California’s population was up in 2023, the first time since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Governor Gavin Newsom heralded the end of the notorious California exodus. He was wrong.

Data from our moving cost calculator shows that California is still the U.S. state with the highest ratio of interest in moving out vs. moving in, with just 46 newcomers for every 100 departures.

But even with so many residents fleeing and hundreds of businesses picking up stakes, California remains the most populous state and a tremendous cultural and economic power. As such, there is still a high volume of relocating Americans interested in heading to the Golden State. We took a look at the data from our Moving Cost Calculator, comparing searches for moves in vs. moves out (in-to-out move ratio) to see where Californians want to move and which in-state areas are losing or gaining from relocating Americans.

California is ranked dead last for its move-in-to-out ratio, a comparison of searches for moves in to searches for moves out. At the same time, its higher #32 GDP growth and slowly rising natural and immigration-related population reflect the state treading water as its domestic population moves out in droves.

State	2023 in-to-out ratio	2024 in-to-out ratio	y/y % change 2023-2024
California	0.53	0.46	-13%
New Jersey	0.64	0.63	-2%
Rhode Island	0.9	0.63	-30%
Connecticut	0.75	0.69	-8%
Maryland	0.78	0.75	-4%
Average of all states	1.12	1.14	2%

California’s in-to-out move ratio is #50 in the nation and is 37% worse than #2 New Jersey.

For instance, in 2023, as California gained roughly 115,000 new residents from legal immigration, it lost more than double that number due to moves to other states. In any event, immigration may not represent a solution to California’s woes, even if the number of naturalized Californians continues to grow. After all, housing costs are the #1 reason movers cite for leaving the Golden State, and they’re a likely obstacle for natives and newcomers alike.

It turns out that all kinds of Californians are calling it quits.

High-income earners balk at some of the steepest income taxes in the country, a complaint which may be behind the state’s loss of residents with graduate degrees.

And early-career workers are also moving out. Single millennials and Gen Z residents making $53,500 are the most likely group to exit California, with nearly three-quarters of young adults and renters considering a future outside the Golden State.

From 2021 to 2023, interest in moving to California increased, with the in-to-out ratio rising from 0.48 to 0.53. This aligns with census findings that California’s population increased in 2023 by over 67,000 to 39,128,162 people, a growth rate of 0.17%.

However, in early 2024, the trend looks to have reversed, dropping to a ratio of 0.46, indicating a significant rise in searches to move out of the state.

Californians may love their lifestyle. However, while 71% of Californians are happy with life in their state, 40% are considering moving. With more and more employers relocating and ever-less affordable housing, it makes sense that Californians are increasingly seeking their fortunes elsewhere.

According to moveBuddha data, moves into California from out of state are consistently fewer than moves entering the state. Which begs the question: if the rich don’t like its taxes and the poor can’t afford it, who’s moving to California now?

2. Which states and cities are still sending new residents to California?

Say “howdy” to your new neighbors, Californians. In 2024, Texans were the top source of new California moves from out of state.

Though the high proportion of interest for moves in from Texas may seem surprising to everyone who has heard that it’s Californians who are moving to Texas, the trend is not new.

Texas and California have a long-standing exchange program of relocations. They’re each other’s top move-to destination, both in percentage of total moves as well as overall volume of moves. So far, in 2024, 11% of all Texans moving out of state are headed to California, while 28% of Californians moving out of state are headed to Texas.

The states moving to California the most in 2024 so far.

Rank	State	% of moves into CA
1	Texas	10.9%
2	New York	9.1%
3	Washington	8.4%
4	Florida	6.7%
5	Illinois	5.1%
6	Virginia	3.8%
7	Massachusetts	3.6%
8	Colorado	3.5%
9	Oregon	3.4%
10	Georgia	3.3%

moveBuddha’s 2024 search numbers are in keeping with 2023 trends. Last year, the US census found California was also the top destination for outbound Texans. Judging by spring moving searches, that trend will continue into 2024.

Why? Well, with the typical “Texpat” being a millennial renter making ~$50,000, there’s a chance that California’s newcomers are career-starters who see opportunity in going west.

Afterall, California dominates industries like film, tech, gaming, and tourism. The world’s 5th largest economy, California could lose half of its tech workers and still be tied as the #1 state employing tech workers.

California cities Americans still want to move to in 2024

Today, of all searches for movers into California, 14% are bound for L.A.

Large cities have an advantage by numbers alone. Following Los Angeles’ number one placement, #2 San Diego and #3 San Francisco also top the list of in-move destination cities by volume. That further highlights that new moves are primarily driven toward career starters seeking economic opportunities.

Other cities in Silicon Valley, like Palo Alto (#9), San Jose (#5) and nearby Fremont (#7) suggest that tech opportunities are still compelling forces in domestic migration to California.

The top 10 cities with the most searches for moves-in are:

1. Los Angeles
2. San Diego
3. San Francisco
4. Sacramento
5. San Jose
6. Irvine
7. Fremont
8. Oakland
9. Palo Alto
10. Fresno

3. Which states do Californians want to move to the most in 2024?

When Californians leave, they head to Texas. Almost a third of exiting Californians call the Lone Star State their new home.

Aside from Texas, other top destinations include New York, Washington, and Florida. Interestingly, California is also a top move-to destination for movers exiting these states.

Self-sorting may be at play in the exchange game that typifies California’s in-and-out moves.

Perhaps it’s California Republicans who may settle in Texas or Florida, and conversely, die-hard Democrats from those states who see California as a welcoming haven.

That’s been true in Republican-dominated Idaho, where 65% of newcomers are registered Republicans and just 12% are Democrats, though many moved from blue states. In Texas, exit polls show that transplants actually vote more conservatively than native Texans.

With a diminishing vanguard of Republicans, California is becoming bluer.

Additionally, exchange moves may simply be the boomerang rehoming of out-of-staters who left California early in the pandemic and vice versa. Their chance to work remotely may have evaporated, or their plans in a new state didn’t pan out.

One YouTuber who moved back to L.A. said, “Living in Texas was very different from my expectations.” She lamented local restaurants lost to pandemic closures and rising crime. However, as costs in Texas edged closer to their California counterparts and California’s businesses reopened, the content creator booked her return trip.

Rank	State	% of CA exits
1	Texas	27.6%
2	Florida	15.6%
3	New York	14.6%
4	Washington	14.3%
5	Arizona	11.3%
6	Nevada	10.9%
7	Oregon	9.7%
8	North Carolina	8.7%
9	Colorado	8.0%
10	Tennessee	7.4%

In some states, the “exchange” of state moves is particularly lopsided.

California is winning the exchange game in just 3 states: it’s getting more residents from Alaska, North Dakota, and Rhode Island than it’s sending to these states.

In every other state, California is sending more new residents than it’s receiving in return. That’s especially true in Oklahoma and Idaho. In more than 85% of moves between the two states, Californians are moving there, not vice versa.

Which U.S. cities are Californians looking to move to the most?

While Los Angeles attracts the most interest from out-of-state residents looking to move to California, New York City sees the highest number of Californians looking to move in, by volume.

According to moveBuddha data, the top 15 most searched cities for outbound moves from California collectively account for 20%. Of those, New York City is the most popular choice, with 3.44% of all searches for moves out of California in 2024. This accounts for 17% of all searches for only the top 15 cities.

Sure, New York is the biggest city in the country, and its high search volume speaks to that reality. But it also suggests that not all Californians are leaving the state for cost and political reasons.

Where else are Californians heading in 2024? Las Vegas (#2) and Seattle (#3) are regional economic hubs in the same time zone. The continuing popularity of Austin (#4) shows that plenty of Californians are still hopping on the Texas train.

1. New York, NY
2. Las Vegas, NV
3. Seattle, WA
4. Austin, TX
5. Portland, OR
6. Houston, TX
7. Chicago, IL
8. Dallas, TX
9. Denver, CO
10. Miami, FL
11. San Antonio, TX
12. Boston, MA
13. Henderson, NV
14. Phoenix, AZ
15. Washington, DC

4. Which Cali cities are residents leaving? And where do new Californians want to settle?

Here are the California cities with the most searches for moves-in or -out in 2024 so far.

2024 Move to Rank	City, State	2024 Move In-to-out Ratio
1	Beverly Hills, CA	3.1
2	Palm Springs, CA	2.38
3	Palm Desert, CA	2.08
4	Napa, CA	1.19
5	Folsom, CA	1.16
5	Palo Alto, CA	1.16
7	San Luis Obispo, CA	1.13
7	Culver City, CA	1.13
9	Corona, CA	1.09
9	Elk Grove, CA	1.09
11	Newport Beach, CA	1.03
12	Monterey, CA	1
13	Ontario, CA	0.98
14	Sacramento, CA	0.96
15	Fremont, CA	0.95
15	Davis, CA	0.95
15	Santa Clara, CA	0.95
18	Roseville, CA	0.94
19	Burbank, CA	0.92
20	Redding, CA	0.9
20	Pasadena, CA	0.9
20	Cupertino, CA	0.90
20	Santa Rosa, CA	0.9
24	Alameda, CA	0.88
25	Thousand Oaks, CA	0.85
25	San Mateo, CA	0.85
27	Santa Monica, CA	0.84
28	Chula Vista, CA	0.82
29	Redwood City, CA	0.81
30	Fresno, CA	0.8
31	Berkeley, CA	0.78
32	Santa Cruz, CA	0.76
33	Danville, CA	0.74
33	Ventura, CA	0.74
35	Bakersfield, CA	0.73
36	Carlsbad, CA	0.72
36	Chico, CA	0.72
38	Vacaville, CA	0.71
38	Sunnyvale, CA	0.71
38	San Francisco, CA	0.71
41	Irvine, CA	0.7
42	Santa Barbara, CA	0.69
42	San Ramon, CA	0.69
42	Los Angeles, CA	0.69
45	Temecula, CA	0.68
46	Camarillo, CA	0.67
46	Mountain View, CA	0.67
48	Murrieta, CA	0.66
48	West Hollywood, CA	0.66
50	San Diego, CA	0.65
51	Walnut Creek, CA	0.62
52	Long Beach, CA	0.61
53	Oceanside, CA	0.59
53	Santa Ana, CA	0.59
55	Santa Clarita, CA	0.56
56	San Jose, CA	0.55
57	Riverside, CA	0.54
57	Glendale, CA	0.54
59	San Marcos, CA	0.51
59	Pleasanton, CA	0.51
59	Torrance, CA	0.51
62	Oakland, CA	0.5
63	Costa Mesa, CA	0.48
64	Stockton, CA	0.46
65	Livermore, CA	0.43
65	Dublin, CA	0.43
67	Modesto, CA	0.37
68	Mission Viejo, CA	0.34
69	Huntington Beach, CA	0.33
70	San Bernardino, CA	0.32
70	Anaheim, CA	0.32

Note: For our analysis, we only include cities with a minimum of 25 inbound queries and 25 outbound queries, which narrows our list down to a list of 71 of the most searched California cities.

California’s Biggest Losers: Orange County and Inland Empire lose residents at highest rates

Insulated from the city of Los Angeles and with a more suburban atmosphere and longer commute times, outlying cities in Orange County and the Inland Empire enjoyed some renewed interest early in the pandemic. Data shows this trend may now be reversing.

Still expensive but also overcrowded and far from the center of the action, spots like Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Mission Viejo, and even Anaheim have little to offer when you have to haul your surfboard out of the water earlier than ever to hit the I-5 before the commute gets harrowing.

All these cities once offered affordable housing, allowing the Los Angeles metro area to sprawl into some genuinely stunning beachfront territory along its south coast. Today, you’ll find all the traffic and unaffordable housing but little of the space and beauty it originally represented.

Nevertheless, the laid-back beach vibes are still popular at pricey Newport Beach, which outperforms Huntington Beach and remains on the popular list. Perhaps its affluence has something to do with it: an average home here is about 2.6x what it costs in Huntington Beach.

The California Dream: Cities Americans still want to move to, a tale of affluence, retirement, and new housing

Load up the truck and move to Beverly Hills: Affluent cities are the most searched California cities via moveBuddha's Moving Cost Calculator.

But could it be just that? A dream?

While celebrity Californians are some of the most high-profile move-outs, the wealthy California enclaves many of them used to call home are among the state’s most searched move-to cities in 2024.

It’s easy to see the overlap between California cities with the highest home prices and the top move-to cities: the three priciest cities in the state(Beverly Hills, Palo Alto, and Newport Beach) all show greater interest from those planning to move in than move out.

Desirable areas have low supply and high demand and are thus more expensive.

However, these high search volumes may not fully represent actual migration trends. Searches driven by dreamers, who are simply exploring the idea of moving to famous areas like Beverly Hills, can disrupt our ability to capture the true nature of moves into and out of these cities.

Take Beverly Hills, where there are 3.1 searches for those desiring a move-in vs. searches for moves out of the city. Known for its safe and sleepy atmosphere, Beverly Hills is often hyped as a retirement destination, with safe boulevards seemingly designed for dog walking, a pickleball program, and a distinguished ambiance. Perhaps that’s because buying a home here takes a lifetime of career success.

You’ll find more of the same in Napa, replete with wine, some of the world’s best restaurants, and great weather.

In Palo Alto, you’ll find highly-rated schools. The city earns accolades like “best for kids” and “best for entrepreneurs,” though it’s also known as “shielded from the outside world by rigid zoning laws.” The latter cause controversy, likely keeping housing costs out of reach for many.

Along with Newport Beach, these 3 cities suggest that the ritziest cities in California are still attracting newcomers. Or, maybe it's just that dreamers considering these locations are looking at how much their dream may cost them.

#2 Palm Springs and #3 Palm Desert are an oasis for retirees

Other hotspots in California are cities catering to retirees. #2 Palm Springs is on lists of the best retirement cities in the country. Its median age is 57.3. Coachella Valley neighbor #3 Palm Desert’s is 55.2.

In both, real estate prices are down from last year and holding steady under the state average.

Developed to accommodate for the 2-hour return time that Hollywood studios required of its stars, Palm Springs has always capitalized on its distance from Los Angeles. Today, the commute can last much longer than 2 hours in gridlock, underscoring that Palm Springs' new residents aren’t rushing into the office but are more likely found on the links in this “golf capital of the world.”

Is Folsom the next emerging hotspot?

Taking the “well-paying jobs that are being created in Northern California and sending them to Texas and Florida” irks some tech giants looking to create a massive-scale planned community east of the Bay Area.

However, displaced young families from Silicon Valley and San Francisco are already looking east for more affordable cities for themselves. Spots like Folsom (#5) and Elk Grove (#9), on the outskirts of Sacramento, point to the emergence of more affordable, distant outposts already feeding Northern California’s continued economic might.

In Folsom, new residents enjoy new home developments and a new medical center in an area that may also cater to retirees: city officials call it a potential future “Blue Zone.”

Suppose the visionary start-up city and its estimated 400,000 new residents become a reality. In that case, the entire area will benefit from a tsunami of new housing, and residents will no longer be tied to Bay Area offices. Until then, the home-grown version of this growth continues, transforming Sacramento exurbs like these into up-and-coming hubs for young people and families looking for a slice of California’s pie.

Will California Stay #50 for Movers in 2024?

The California dream isn’t over, but the exodus continues, and it’s even accelerating at the beginning of 2024 as more Californians than last year plan to move out compared to those moving in.

That means that California will have to reinvent itself with more affordable housing, closer to more jobs, in all corners of the state to generate positive momentum and turn those numbers around.

The good news is that the state still attracts young professionals looking to make their careers here. However, too many find they can’t stay long enough to snag a job that keeps up with California’s cost of living, raise a family, or buy a home.

That missing middle — be it middle age or middle income — is creating a gap California must fill to attract new movers and stop the exodus of existing residents.

Until then, expect California’s one-time dreamers to keep heading to Texas.

5. Sources and Methodology

This report primarily uses moveBuddha proprietary data. For understanding the cost of area homes we use Zillow’s Home Value Index.

moveBuddha proprietary data

moveBuddha collects mover search queries via their Moving Cost Calculator which amounts to half a million searches annually from people wanting to move, this includes everything from a DIY move to a full-service move and everything in-between. This data provides real-time insights into where people are moving to and leaving from, including popular cities and states

Data used in this report spans from January 1, 2020 through May 17, 2024 capturing searches by individuals planning a move.
Search data amounts to over half a million searches annually.
For state-level analysis, we only look at moves crossing state borders.
For city-level analysis, we only included cities with a minimum of 25 inbound queries and 25 outbound queries.
More information about our move data can be found in our annual Migration Report.

The moveBuddha in-to-out ratio

In moveBuddha migration reports, our analysts primarily use an in-to-out move ratio. The in-to-out ratio is calculated by taking the number of searches for moves divided by the number of searches for moves out of a city or state.
A ratio greater than 1 indicates higher inflow than outflow.
A ratio less than 1 indicates higher outflow.

Sample data:

State/City	2023 In-to-Out Ratio	2023 In-to-Out Ratio (x100)	2024 In-to-Out Ratio	2024 In-to-Out Ratio (x100)	% Point Change (2023 to 2024)
California	0.53	53	0.46	46	-7
Palm Springs, CA	1.57	157	2.38	238	81
San Bernardino, CA	0.38	38	0.32	32	-6